Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15138

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.092). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15137, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15138
    30 Oct 2026, 11:41 UTC

    PARG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPARG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfe927f4ec8361cad

    discovery+0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.092)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ccffae5db643f38c066a254…
    follows 66a3e437780e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15138: PARG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PARG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.