Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15136

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.358). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15135, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15136
    30 Oct 2026, 11:38 UTC

    NBEAL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNBEAL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered19534b833e07d516

    discovery+0.35 p=0.358 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.358)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4f955d9559093743149041f4…
    follows 66676af60a30…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15136: NBEAL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NBEAL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.