Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15089

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15088, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15089
    30 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC

    FERMT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFERMT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered078f40194deea5e4

    discovery+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f63f4005558b88bef251696e…
    follows 29ccb38d8f01…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15089: FERMT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.71 (p 9.6e-4, n 18) vs +0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FERMT2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FERMT2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.5e-4)