Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15085

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15084, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15085
    30 Oct 2026, 10:29 UTC

    FIBP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFIBP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredff2b1a7e98b7a839

    discovery+0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7b056f2f3e4790aacc291014…
    follows 09fa90943cf7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15085: FIBP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.78 (p 1.3e-4, n 18) vs +0.26 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FIBP in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FIBP · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.72 p 0.0100 (needs p < 1.5e-4)