Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15077

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.086). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15076, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15077
    30 Oct 2026, 10:18 UTC

    PLOD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLOD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc5e97911cf3dda57

    discovery+0.60 p=0.086 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.086)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69f3ac62104a5d6325f6ad5f…
    follows c3eb6a20a4ea…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15077: PLOD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI +0.11 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.49 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLOD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.