Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15073

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15072, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15073
    30 Oct 2026, 10:13 UTC

    TMTC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMTC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf6c05107d82221fa

    discovery+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1877bc237366769824ef4c6c…
    follows 0d0a9b48bed1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15073: TMTC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.48 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMTC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.