Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15071

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15070, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15071
    30 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC

    RFX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRFX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredac47ff4255b020b6

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.247 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f162db48c67a7469bf364de8…
    follows 7ebba79d1d23…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15071: RFX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RFX1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.