Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.292). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1507
    18 Oct 2026, 00:26 UTC

    PPP1R3B

    microglia, braak

    predictionPPP1R3B in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2c0e790bc0a04855

    discovery+0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.292)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d525dd171889b18fcd39d257…
    follows 5357984ceff3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1507: PPP1R3B in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1R3B in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.