Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15064

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15063, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15064
    30 Oct 2026, 09:59 UTC

    IGF2BP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIGF2BP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9e78910c7854e383

    discovery+0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3e009f8f1565a28ee09f4a8…
    follows ed99b3cfdfbb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15064: IGF2BP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IGF2BP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.