Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15062

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15061, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15062
    30 Oct 2026, 09:56 UTC

    GTPBP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGTPBP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1733777043c7d3ea

    discovery-0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    24366e17f1b996b16b32a0c3…
    follows 98ddac503900…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15062: GTPBP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18) vs -0.36 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GTPBP1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GTPBP1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 1.5e-4)