Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15060

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15059, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15060
    30 Oct 2026, 09:53 UTC

    AFP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAFP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered163a82cd43b6b63b

    discovery+0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8824606435835cea8d81a573…
    follows c514e4284cbf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15060: AFP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AFP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.