Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15053

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15052, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15053
    30 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC

    FAXC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAXC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5fa0affc4aaf304c

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    056bce26e320c773de461241…
    follows 7d39a0620f0b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15053: FAXC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAXC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.