Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15051

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.963). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15050, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15051
    30 Oct 2026, 09:42 UTC

    MRRF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRRF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd0e918e93fd7f31a

    discovery+0.02 p=0.963 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.963)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca97c7051658bfe4045d9578…
    follows 8caf5463d4e3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15051: MRRF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRRF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.