Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15049

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.870). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15048, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15049
    30 Oct 2026, 09:39 UTC

    CD46

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD46 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd9faa3b1bf0708c6

    discovery+0.06 p=0.870 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.152 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.870)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6d2ffc804e7e83aecb3d6d6c…
    follows 23a58b14e73e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15049: CD46 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD46 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.