Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15047

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15046, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15047
    30 Oct 2026, 09:36 UTC

    VAV2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVAV2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e64dbc492d248a2

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca6174ce23df48ab704fd502…
    follows 77255b9df13c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15047: VAV2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VAV2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.