Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15044

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15043, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15044
    30 Oct 2026, 09:34 UTC

    RGS20

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRGS20 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7fce87d4990e1478

    discovery+0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c1eb5c8bd0d7541914841986…
    follows da51607df5f7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15044: RGS20 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.09, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGS20 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.