Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15034

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.083). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15033, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15034
    30 Oct 2026, 09:20 UTC

    TNFAIP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFAIP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3495a066382e2a1

    discovery-0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.083)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    be76084687f99f6d55e89566…
    follows a31f8764e32f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15034: TNFAIP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.64 (p 0.0042, n 18), 95% CI -0.85 to -0.25. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.76 (p 2.2e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.64 (p 0.0042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFAIP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.