Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15025

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.554). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15024, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15025
    30 Oct 2026, 09:09 UTC

    KCNIP1

    microglia, braak

    predictionKCNIP1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3076f6e0cda0f765

    discovery-0.23 p=0.554 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.530 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.554)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e8535061d36592ede5e60fb6…
    follows ad184dfae413…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15025: KCNIP1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNIP1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.