Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15021

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15020, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15021
    30 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

    PRPF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRPF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered63c986544e142fc9

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0a01af6cb9775d30c9ef4a6c…
    follows e566b5a4c396…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15021: PRPF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRPF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.