Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15017

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.773). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15016, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15017
    30 Oct 2026, 08:58 UTC

    CCAR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCAR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9dd6b4e8829104dc

    discovery+0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.773)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2315d4f93a523a1c7c8a17c4…
    follows 18c2ed0c2f45…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15017: CCAR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCAR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.