Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15011

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.910). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15010, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15011
    30 Oct 2026, 08:49 UTC

    DIAPH1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDIAPH1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredacad6ffe5c4fa291

    discovery-0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.910)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3fe9974babc427bbab399f61…
    follows fa4e4406048b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15011: DIAPH1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DIAPH1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.