Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15001

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.699). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15000, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15001
    30 Oct 2026, 08:38 UTC

    ADAMTS8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADAMTS8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaba4d6a055e928dc

    discovery-0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.699)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ab7dd31d48dd502cca96e2da…
    follows e61737b7c2f2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15001: ADAMTS8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.35 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADAMTS8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ADAMTS8 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.78 p 0.0059 (needs p < 1.5e-4)