Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14999

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.165). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14998, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14999
    30 Oct 2026, 08:35 UTC

    ARMCX4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARMCX4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered86f5005dcb41f4d0

    discovery-0.51 p=0.165 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.165)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8e85cc47e3e74c3b9b5bb301…
    follows 8089842e8f0d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14999: ARMCX4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.18, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARMCX4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.