Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14997

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.383). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14996, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14997
    30 Oct 2026, 08:32 UTC

    ZNF354C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF354C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7012919aaa008253

    discovery-0.33 p=0.383 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.383)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f4fe358b511ec55cb9f888b0…
    follows 888d6ee0ed87…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14997: ZNF354C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.15, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF354C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.