Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14965

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14964, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14965
    30 Oct 2026, 07:48 UTC

    ARPC1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARPC1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d711a2950321e84

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5e346f8ad2a93baa730aa48a…
    follows 1d7f37fcc9ac…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14965: ARPC1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARPC1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.