Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14951

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14950, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14951
    30 Oct 2026, 07:28 UTC

    HERC6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHERC6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered807826ea0ff7abe5

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7d1392dff5d1ea4164b54589…
    follows 93544cbaae30…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14951: HERC6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HERC6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.