Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14947

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.069). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14946, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14947
    30 Oct 2026, 07:23 UTC

    PAX3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPAX3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc9147a47386da0a9

    discovery+0.63 p=0.069 n=9

    replication+0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.069)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a7172cf401c888201fb36ad9…
    follows 40b87a3e1188…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14947: PAX3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18), 95% CI +0.20 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.56 to +0.72, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAX3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.