Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14941

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14940, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14941
    30 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    CDCA3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDCA3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd043ab73a79720a2

    discovery-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0d9a1d19b7ef508bb1c94693…
    follows aff426fe2205…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14941: CDCA3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDCA3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.