Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14939

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.833). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14938, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14939
    30 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC

    EIF2S3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEIF2S3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered906e2db7dca55044

    discovery-0.08 p=0.833 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.833)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d5b6f36742006fd862a542f5…
    follows 3c83d92a5eb4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14939: EIF2S3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EIF2S3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.