Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14937

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.852). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14936, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14937
    30 Oct 2026, 07:09 UTC

    THAP9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTHAP9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e296abc5c34b9de

    discovery+0.07 p=0.852 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.852)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f22cf2a369a59d3339612e5b…
    follows 98c94e4e41f2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14937: THAP9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for THAP9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.