Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14935

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.458). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14934, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14935
    30 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    TPM3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPM3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered18ed4ee8031fddfd

    discovery+0.28 p=0.458 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.458)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    114b44f85c86d2bed99bdb39…
    follows ba62cae97f80…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14935: TPM3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPM3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.