Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14930

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.470). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14929, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14930
    30 Oct 2026, 06:58 UTC

    IL21R

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL21R in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered258d5397590afc4d

    discovery+0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.470)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3bc42aa1542da4c407ed0af…
    follows 73c6532dc474…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14930: IL21R in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.15, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL21R in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.