Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14921

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.033; held-out +0.26 p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14920, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14921
    30 Oct 2026, 06:46 UTC

    SLAIN1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSLAIN1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered191930e7d680bc70

    discovery+0.71 p=0.033 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.033; held-out +0.26 p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a427fb9af25185d766699acc…
    follows f72a8e68ee19…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14921: SLAIN1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLAIN1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.