Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14914

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.017; held-out -0.83 p 0.0058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14913, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14914
    30 Oct 2026, 06:38 UTC

    NEO1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNEO1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc0c7269d5a21bf77

    discovery+0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    replication-0.83 p=0.0058 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.017; held-out -0.83 p 0.0058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9be8edec2a91cfbab85cf41f…
    follows bdf7d3eb6f4c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14914: NEO1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEO1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.