Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14906

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14905, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14906
    30 Oct 2026, 06:27 UTC

    DGKK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDGKK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered647e7c23e9b072e9

    discovery+0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    61280b2f8774807be441de23…
    follows 8136eb225873…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14906: DGKK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DGKK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.