Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14903

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.449). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14902, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14903
    30 Oct 2026, 06:21 UTC

    HMGN4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHMGN4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ef08dc22cfacd81

    discovery+0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    replication+0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.449)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    836307a3945bf17fd8679352…
    follows 07b95c4d40c2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14903: HMGN4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18), 95% CI +0.02 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HMGN4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.