Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14899

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14898, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14899
    30 Oct 2026, 06:15 UTC

    CCL19

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCL19 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0bc8d0fef1fa222a

    discovery-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ec9fb84800d708706be84d96…
    follows 7417b9686606…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14899: CCL19 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCL19 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.