Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14894

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.148). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14893, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14894
    30 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC

    ZNF248

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF248 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered06dfce86cae9a78b

    discovery-0.52 p=0.148 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.148)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3859d2c3c4c4b45535783d5…
    follows 44b5e96e5157…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14894: ZNF248 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF248 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.