Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14892

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14891, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14892
    30 Oct 2026, 06:07 UTC

    SPOCK3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPOCK3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered71d8976b4308228c

    discovery+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    78155cf9256e3e00cc8169dc…
    follows 0cad75677143…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14892: SPOCK3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPOCK3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.