Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14883

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14882, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14883
    30 Oct 2026, 05:56 UTC

    CD70

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD70 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfe843183df0bcdc7

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1239f9e46a6d505d70b1df45…
    follows 6de0f0c29987…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14883: CD70 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD70 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.