Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14871

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.083). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14870, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14871
    30 Oct 2026, 05:39 UTC

    TAPBP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAPBP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered63ecdaf5c364a793

    discovery-0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.083)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    027a10169e03a5399d508612…
    follows 3a6ee1f773a1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14871: TAPBP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAPBP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.