Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14861

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.375). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14860, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14861
    30 Oct 2026, 05:25 UTC

    PIWIL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPIWIL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered02355963884dd069

    discovery+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.375)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ab583d71b749a20ddba7fc30…
    follows 690d1d6c6dbd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14861: PIWIL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIWIL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.