Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14856

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.668). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14855, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14856
    30 Oct 2026, 05:20 UTC

    TRAK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRAK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2d792bc943fa923a

    discovery+0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.668)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da03bf894399540afda6f099…
    follows 4b54f4fa7ae0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14856: TRAK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18) vs -0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRAK2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TRAK2 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.70 p 0.013 (needs p < 1.6e-4)