Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14854

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14853, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14854
    30 Oct 2026, 05:17 UTC

    FUT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFUT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered99bbfcdde4eccf5a

    discovery-0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fe27898c0766e0eee550c6a5…
    follows 0a04a9fa2557…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14854: FUT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0042, n 18) vs -0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FUT2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FUT2 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.6e-4)