Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14852

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.308). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14851, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14852
    30 Oct 2026, 05:14 UTC

    UBFD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBFD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0621a634fbe944c8

    discovery-0.38 p=0.308 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.111 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.308)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9458dc00631110934067c71a…
    follows 4ea5cd7b9420…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14852: UBFD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBFD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.