Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14848

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14847, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14848
    30 Oct 2026, 05:09 UTC

    UBE2L6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2L6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered94ba9dead5ad427f

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d91445de62022f326e7adbf0…
    follows 48d6b46ba3dd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14848: UBE2L6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2L6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.