Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14842

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14841, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14842
    30 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC

    N4BP2L2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionN4BP2L2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3940d04ad792e126

    discovery+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7588f5daf2f687a8e6da4e43…
    follows c9260a55e8fa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14842: N4BP2L2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for N4BP2L2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.