Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14836

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14835, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14836
    30 Oct 2026, 04:52 UTC

    NBEA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNBEA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered67dd3ab9d3bc4eee

    discovery+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication+0.88 p=0.0017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3829d192e582aaaca9d59f31…
    follows f1fb6dd1c5e3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14836: NBEA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18), 95% CI -0.00 to +0.77. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NBEA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.