Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14815

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.059). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14814, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14815
    30 Oct 2026, 04:24 UTC

    GRK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered17903063f00879cc

    discovery-0.65 p=0.059 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.059)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc7e2109898a648a07fc1f31…
    follows d924d33459db…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14815: GRK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.08. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs -0.53 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRK2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GRK2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 1.6e-4)