Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14801

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.277). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14800, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14801
    30 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC

    HEPACAM

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionHEPACAM in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5cd95cec3fc67301

    discovery+0.41 p=0.277 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.277)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e9474f838db45a32676af5f0…
    follows 381bf77aa1dd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14801: HEPACAM in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HEPACAM in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.